Monday, February 25, 2013

Technicals for Gold (Spot) and Silver (Spot) for 26th February 2013

Technicals for Gold (Spot) and Silver (Spot) for 26th February 2013

Gold Spot resistance levels @ 1597/1604. Near term looking in correction mode. Major resistance @1628/30 levels. Convincing close above this level will take to 1665/70. Support for Gold (Spot) is 1584/77.

Major trend remains bearish unless it closes above 1630/35
Near term looking in correction mode, can go up to 1625/28 unless it doesn't closes below 1555

Silver Spot resistance around 2930/2955

Silver looks a buy around 2865/50 with a closing stop of 2760 for target of 3020/60 (but needs patience) .

Can see major short covering once 2930/40 is cleared convincingly.

Support for silver @2810/2780/2760

Have a great trading day

Love and Regards

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Weekly Technicals for Commodities and FX for week starting 18 Jan '10

Sorry to our readers for being off the blog for last six months.

Will try to be regular now.....

Last week was quite eventful and thus volatile...

Gold (Spot) : Almost touched 61.8% retracement from 1226.50 to 1079.00 lvl of arnd 1069 lvls.... Looks like the retracment is over andd now a retracement in downside (1162-1079) , a doji formation on weekly charts, is due... so can go short arnd 1146/1152 lvls with stop of 1163 for tgt of 1121/23 lvs...n

Note: Decemeber 2009 was first month after June 2009 where Gold's open to close was lower...

Silver (Spot) : Similar to gold, Doji formation on weekly on charts, will suggest to go short on Silver arnd 1870/75 lvls with 1900 as stop for tgt arnd 1785 lvls (which is 50% retracement on recent upmove).

Note: Doji formation in Silver on quarerly charts, be caution on long side.... only if 1900/25 lvls broken comfortably would suggest going long on Silver....

Usd Index: Dollar Index looks bullish on the weekly charts. Can go long on March 2010 contract arnd 77 lvls with stop of 76.50 for tgt of 78.10/20 lvls.

Eur/Usd: moving in an channel for past 4 weeks..... Looks like the correction for recent downleg is over and we are reaady to move lower.... Small Double top formation on Daily charts arnd 1.5140 lvls and engulfing pattern on monthly charts have turn Euro charts bearish... This week can sell arnd 1.4450 lvls stop of 14520..... abv 14530 with take us to 1.4610/20 lvls.... Only brk of 14680/147000 would turn bullish....

Gbp/Usd: Flag formation on weekly and monthly charts...... Hence movin broader range .... Below 1.5650 bearish and abv 16900 bullish till then in range....

This week play the narrow range of 1.6350 and 1.6100
Long term.... bearsih on Gbp

Usd/Jpy: Daily close below 90.30 shld take Usd/Jpy to 89.40 lvls.... Sell Usd/Jpy arnd 92.35 lvls for target of stop of 94 for tgt of 89.40/50 lvls.

Watch out this blog here for futher technicals during the week.

Happy Trading Week.


Saturday, July 4, 2009

Monthly Technicals @ end of June 2009

Eur/Usd: Monthly charts of Eur showing slowdown in recent rally and thus a small doji kind of formation. Expect correction in Eur (of upmove from 1.2450 - 1.4340) i.e. 38.2%- 1.3615, 50%- 1.3400/1.3390 and 61.8% - 1.3170 . If you see the larger picture, theres a triangle formation in weekly charts which has resistane arnd 1.4250/80 thus recommending selling arnd 1.4250/80 with stop 1.4375 for atleast target of 1.3390/13400.
Need a convincing close below 1.3740 for further downside. Alternatively, close above 1.4375 to be bullish.
Resistance @ 1.4280, 1.4340, 1.4430 and 1.4570
support @ 1.3870, 1.3740, 1.3580 and 1.3390

Gbp/Usd: Gbp corrected almost 50% ( 1.6825) fall from 2.0155 - 1.3500 at 1.6745. However the rally has lost its fizzle and now trading in range of 1.6200 -1.6675. Like Eur, expecting correction of last few months rally of 1.3500 - 1.6745: 38.2% @ 1.5510, 50% @ 1.5125 and 61.8% @ 1.4745. Only a convincing close above 1.6825 will target 1.7475/1.7620.
Sell gbp/usd arnd 1.6745/1.6800 with stop of 1.6850 for target of 1.5125
Resis @ 1.6745, 1.6825, 1.7130 and 1.7250
supp @ 1.6150, 1.5800, 1.5740 and 1.5625

Usd/Jpy: On weekly charts, trading in a channel. Hence expecting it to trade in range, unless breakout of range. 93.40/60 looks to be strong support and resis @ 98.20, 99.75 and 101.45.
Jpy looks a buy 94.50/9480 with stop arnd 93.40/60 for 98.80/99.00

Dollar index (Sep), on monthly charts towards 84.40/50, looks due for an upward correction thus coming months looks to be dollar supportive.
resis @ 81.15, 82.00 and 83.55
support @ 79.70, 79.55 and 78.83

Gold: Bearish piercing formation on monthly charts, therefore bearish outlook for gold. Sell gold arnd 960/68 area with stop 985. Above 995 bullish nd major support @ 900 and 864

Silver: Similar to gold, bearish piercing formation on monthly charts and bearish outlook. Can sell arnd 1464/75 areas with stop of 15.15. Expect silver to be more volatile than gold in cumin weeks and months.

Bse: Doji formation in monthly charts with bearish outlook. Would like to sell arnd 15100/175 with stop above 15600 for tgt of 11950/12000. Above 15600 bullish.
Bse has retraced arnd 50% of the entire fall from all time high 21206 to recent low at 7697.

Copper (comex) looks bearish for tgt of 217/219.

Crude oil look for correction towards 59.50/60.00

DJIA and S&P look for correction towards 7675/7600 and 825/811 respectively.

Good luck with trading!!!

Monday, January 5, 2009

For change...... technical analysis on equities

Happy New Year to all of you.

With year end comes a chance to have a look on yearly and quaterly charts.

I got an opportunity to study charts of few stocks and have drawn targets for the same, time frame being 2-3 months.

Following are the targets for the respective stocks:

MRPL - tgt Rs 55/60
Ispat - tgt Rs 22/25
IFCI - tgt 40/42
IOB - tgt 95/98
LIC housing - tgt 300/310
L&T - tgt 1080/1130
MTNL - tgt 130/140
ONGC - tgt 830/870
Sail - tgt 120/140
Triveni Engg - tgt 70/75
Dish tv - tgt 40/45
Hindustan Zinc - tgt 450

Nifty looks in a corrective mode and my tgt for the same is 3450 to 3500 where one can short nifty with stop of 3650

For RCOM, weekly close above 265 will target 350/375
Similarly for Reliance Petro, close above 98 will target 120/140

Have a safe and happy trading year!!!

Watch out this space for more targets.

Note: Trading in futures is risky


Hitesh B

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Greenspan and Bernanke....... then and now!!

Recently i started reading a biography of Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan -"MAESTRO - Greenspan's Fed and the American Boom" (published in 2000-2001). This book was given to me by a professor during my MBA at Birminham Biz School. I didnt took this book seriously until recently when I put my hands on it. Since I started, I have completed reading approx 25% of the book and interestingly, I found striking similarities in Financial Mkt situation during and after appointment of both Greenspan and Bernanke.

*As per the book, within few weeks of Greenspan's appointment, the Fed Chairman just witnessed history being made with a record fall and rise of US equity markets and crisis situation..... similar to what just Bernanke saw in past couple of months.

*During late 80s, US faced problems of high bankrucpties of Saving and Loan (S&L)institutions due to their investments in so called Junk Bonds and Latin American bonds and exposure to real estate, which led to confidence crisis between banks and liquidity problems....... similar to what we are going through currently, but this time it is mortgage backed securities. However, the common thing between both situations are the real estate industry.

*Book mentions that during the THRIFT (S&L) crisis, Citigroup was on verge of a collapse due to the confidence crisis, foreign loans and S&L exposure. Fed Res rescued Citigroup and then CEO of Citigroup Mr. John Reed similar to what we saw recent rescue of Citigroup by Fed under CEO Mr. Vikram Pandit.

*Due to liquidity crisis, Greenspan infused lot of liquidity in market and convinced mkts thts Fed Res is there to supply enough liquidity in mkt. Bernanke is doing the same. The end result of this....... a huge deficit faced by both chairmans.

*Only a few years into his chairmanship, Greenspan saw the Kuwait invasion of Iraq with retaliation from US, slowdown in the economy and quick cut in interest rates. Bernanks has already felt the slowodown and cut interest rate quickly, only thing he has not seen is the war..... With India and Pakistan at loggerheads with recent attacks in Mumbai and support from US.... I might not be surprised it India attacks Pak occupied Kashmir (PoK) or Pakistan itself... just to divert market from economic scenario to geo-political scenario.

*The difference this time is that US already has a "HUGE" deficit while during Greenspan era... the war itself lead to some increase in US deficit and then the US govt (under Bush in 1990) decided to cut down its deficit (after Iraq war) with legislations being passedin US Congress. During election campaign, the then President Bush promised no increase in tax rates (similar statements by Obama) but was forced to do so due to commitment of reducing deficit. We might see this being repeated under Obama administration. This time, US might not use its own troops to that extent it did during Iraq war.

*Greenspan was lucky to have high interest rates (arounf 9%) when he joined the Fed so he had more to go on the downside.... which is not in the case of Bernanke with current fed funds rate already @ 1% and expected to be reduced to 0.5% on Dec 16 2008 FOMC meeting.

So these were the similarities and a few difference I spotted out reading this book. My only aim to writing this article was to spot out the main similarities Greenspan and Bernanke faced and share the knowledge I got with this book and the recent experience. I know, things have change since then with globalisation but I still feel history has been repeated and going forward, I feel it will repeat itself.

I have only completed 25% of the book so far and I have already learnt so much.... so keep in touch with this blog for more info from the book and my experience.

Happy Trading week!!!

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Turmoil... Turmoil and More Turmoil.......Keep Guessing whos next?????

What a week it words to describe it........

On the weekend (i.e. 13 and 14th Sep) , ppl were just thinking about Hurricane IKE and ******booom****** there came in Lehman Brother's bankruptcy. The weekend started with ppl expecting some solution for Lehman Brothers however talks with BankAm and Barclays failed and surprisingly Merill L was bought and ppl were guessing what will happen to the citibank of insurance sector - AIG.

With this $ started on a weak note for the week and commidities surged higher. Insititutions all over the globe were reluctant in lending to each other.... taking overnite $ lending rates higher........ and high volaitility in currency and commodity markets.... Markets were surrounded by high uncertainity and high volatility.

Dowjones dropped heavily as investors sold stocks & $, while investors preferred safe havens........ this led to gold making its highest one day gain ever and curde surging higher.......

Looking at this situtation central banks all over the world (esp. G7 Nations) stepped in to ensure that there is no panic in market. AIG was provided $ 85bn loan by Fed for 2 years in exchange for it 79.9% stake. On the other hand liquidity was provided, short selling was banned and market was ensured that Central banks will be there no matter what may come. Co-ordinated efforts were made by G7 central banks to proived ample liquidity. Fed came up with a rescue plan- to create a fund to absorb all illquid assets with financial institutions in US..... it also guaranteed money mkt funds........

These steps ensured confidence in markets and financial insititutions..... the result commdities were sold and $ bought.

However in the end, $ ended on a weak note and commodities and equity markets on the +ve side.....

On personal front..... i ve not seen such volatility in commodities in my 8 years of fin mkts experience...... but I can easily conclude..... that with elections this year in US..... the US fed govt will ensure that their markets dont weaken any further and same for the $..... remember its and election year and the US govt will goto any extent to stabilise the market no matter WHAT MAY COME........

Technically speaking.... I feel gold and more upside to come rather than downside and currencies like eur and gbp are in a corrective mood. Max Downside for gold seems to be @ 825 and thn 736......both imptnt lvls for gold........ as said eur is in corrective mode and except some weakness in $ for cumin week.....crude should touch 110/112$ per barrel....... Eur should reach 1.4700 for the next week. One thing is for sure.......... MARKETS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY HIGHLY VOLATILE....... so be aware of either side movements in fin mkts.....

So have a Safe trading week......

Hitesh Bafna

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Daily FX Technicals - 10.07.08

Daily Fx Views

Eur still holding the range of 1.5750 and 1.5640...... still very rangish.
However, holding to our weekly views (see below) I recommend selling arnd 1.5730/50 stop 1.5790 with target of 1.5670/40
French and Italian IP due today

Gbp/Usd....... once again breaked into previous range of 1.9850 and 1.9700. I dont see it going above 19850/75 hence i recommend selling arnd 1.9830/50 stop 1.9880 with target of 1.9750/25....cld buy arnd these lvls......

Bank of England Int Rate decision today...... need to watch out for their focus on Inflation and/or Growth..... no change expected on interest rates....

Usd Jpy ..... again holding... onto the lower end of the channel arnd 106.65/75...... I recommend buying around 106.80/90 stop 106.50 tgt of 107.40..... however convincing break of 106.50 would change our intra day views

Eur/Gbp again piercing back into previous range (flag) of 0.7950 and 0.7885 hence recommend selling arnd 0.7945 with stop of 0.7965
Note :Eur/Gbp very close to the last half of triangle formation........ hence my view that we could see euro/gbp breaking the range........

Have a good trading day!!!!